TAG Industrial Watch: September 9, 2023
It is no secret that commercial real estate is no longer experiencing the boom witnessed during the post-COVID-19 era. For the second quarter, debt origination fell by 52 percent year-over-year (The Real Deal) with banks tightening their lending standards across the board. In turn, sales volume has plummeted as financing deals have become increasingly more difficult and the spread between buyers and sellers widens. The current market conditions yield a not-so-optimistic outlook for the commercial real estate industry. With approximately $900 billion of real estate loans and securities coming due by the end of next year (WSJ), there will certainly be losses on loans that will have to be refinanced at higher interest rates. Consequently, this could set off a chain reaction, or “doom loop” as banks tighten up and restrict lending further, causing property prices to decline and ultimately exacerbating losses for lenders.